By now, we're all aware of the relentless march of the artificial intelligence revolution and the impact it's having on society and our workplaces. The immense power to transform and disrupt will enable evolutions in almost all areas of our lives.
One such area is how we search for information, for years, Google has dominated the search engine market and nobody has come close to competing. The rise of generative AI powered search now poses a real threat to this market dominance and with so many businesses reliant on Google as a source of traffic we have to ask the question, "will Google search survive in an AI search world?"
Google's Search Market Dominance
For years, the word Google has been synonymous with searching for information, it's where most of us have turned when we need to find something whether that be information or a product or service. As a result, Google has enjoyed search market share of over 90% for around 10 years, but for the first time in a long time that market share has dipped below 90%.
Is this slide in share a result of Bing and other competitors upping their game, partly, but another big influence is the rise of generative AI platforms such as chatGPT being used as search engines.
Let's not get carried away though, while there's lots of talk online and in the media about people turning to AI search engines in their droves, data suggests that more people are talking about AI search platforms than using them. According to data from opollo we can see that global visits to chatGPT in March 2024 were just 0.25% however by March 2025 this had grown to 2.1%.
This is a significant growth, though their data set was small, only consisting of data from 75 companies in the MSP and IT sectors. This doesn't mean there's no threat, but rather that Google isn't in danger of losing market dominance imminently.
Is AI Search Great For Everything?
Whether AI search engines are actually any good is subject to debate, those who love them swear by them, but those who don't like them will warn you away from them. In reality we have to accept that just like Google, search engines like chatGPT are good at some things, but not great for everything.
AI Search Accuracy is Questionable
Perhaps worryingly, according to research by the Columbia Journalism Review, AI search returns incorrect information in 60% of queries on average.
Of course if you're searching for information on the latest fashion styles this might not lead to anything more than a fashion faux-pas, but for more serious topics there could be serious consequences, especially if the search user doesn't understnd how to fact check the information they're presented with.
User Intent Needs Consideration
One of the other areas which may need to change in AI search if they really want to compete is the format of search results.
The conversation nature of AI search means that if you're searching to compare a range of products, it can sometimes be difficult to get clear and easy to consume lists and purchase journeys.
Google has had years to hone the buying journey from their search results and serious competitors have a lot of work to do if they want to offer an equally seamless experience.
Commercials Will be Key
No matter how good or bad the challengers to the search throne may be, if they want to succeed and grow as a business, then the commercial considerations will be key.
Businesses run on capital and if these providers can't find a sustainable revenue model, then they may gain market share for now, but long term will struggle to stay afloat.
We've already seen subscription based approaches from the likes of openAI/chatGPT and time will tell if this is enough to support ongoing free access to their platform for a day to day free search service.
An advert based model could also work but the integration of ads into a "conversational" experience will be difficult to master and could end up being a turn off for users.
Google is Integrated in Our Lives
Possibly the biggest advantage Google has to maintaining their search market dominance is how well they Alphabet group has integrated their range of products and services into our lives.
From documents to mail and more beyond, the product suite which Google operates is integrated into almost all aspects of our lives and this may make it more difficult for competitors to break the trust some groups of people have with Google.
As a consequence of this product suite, Google can also offer a huge range of advertising opportunities for business to connect with potential customers. For advertisers, this means they have almost become over reliant on Google for a paid source of traffic.
Offering good levels of high quality traffic at a reasonable price will be a key marker for marketing teams if they're going to justify moving marketing budgets away from existing, proven partners.
How Will Google Adapt?
With all of that in mind, Google can't sit on it's hands here, it's clear that AI search engines aren't perfect, but they have the potential to be a real challenge to the historic dominant position of Google in the search market.
So how could Google respond? In my opinion there are currently 3 options for Google
Integrate Search in Other Products
With other Google products being so well integrated in our lives, could there be an option to move the search experience into these products completely. By moving search into other products, users will have search there when they need it, rather than having to navigate to other platforms.
Make Gemini The Default Search Experience
Google already has its own public AI platform called Gemini, so why not just replace Google Search with this. It certainly would be a gearshift for users and some data suggests accuracy is a real issue here so it's unlikely to happen for the time being.
Continue to Enhance Traditional Search
I'd say this is the most likely option for now, AIO results are almost an expectation in Google search these days. The risk here is that Google assumes this is enough to compete while the challengers hone their offering.
So Will Google Survive?
While the range of wider products and services that Google provides may continue to dominate their respective markets, there is a real risk that their search product could be usurped in the AI revolution. It's unlikely to happen immediately and we've seen people challenge Google time and again without really making any in roads into Google's market position, does anyone actually use Bing?
That said, this feels different, there's a lot of talk around AI search and if some of the key operational and financial challenges can be overcome there's a real potential that Google may not hold on to its crown as search market leader.
What is clear is that the next few years will be interesting for both users, marketeers and businesses looking to drive profitability in the digital space.
